Harris Eyes The Football

Why Kamala Harris has been in North Carolina so much, and why this week matters

North Carolina and Democrats, for the past few election cycles, have been like Charlie Brown and the football: they just keep getting burned. It’s a state that has been decided by less than four points for the last four presidential elections, and in three of them, Republicans have come out on top. In 2020, the Biden campaign was “confident” they would win the state before narrowly losing by less than 100,000 votes. Instead, they earned a surprise victory in a state to North Carolina’s south: Georgia.

The last time a Democratic presidential nominee was successful in the Tar Heel State was in 2008, when then-Senator Barack Obama became the first Democratic candidate to win the state since Jimmy Carter. Propelled by high turnout amongst African American voters and young people, Obama’s win turned North Carolina into an honest-to-god swing state, hotly contested in presidential and congressional contests ever since. However, as (now controversial) election prognosticator Nate Silver says, Obama’s victory was “ahead of schedule,” a blip indicating where the state was headed demographically and politically, but one piece of a more prolonged effort to flip the state. In short, Obama’s unique strength in that election allowed the urbanization and diversification turning North Carolina into a swing state to accelerate — for a cycle — before slowing back down in subsequent races.

Indeed, in 2012, Obama was considered the underdog in North Carolina and eventually lost the state narrowly to Mitt Romney. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the perceived favorite to carry the state, with her campaign even deeming North Carolina their “firewall” if they lost Florida and Ohio. Clinton lost all three of those states, and Ohio and Florida are now generally considered reliably Republican. Come 2020, the Biden campaign’s bullishness on North Carolina seemed warranted, as he led in most statewide surveys, and the national mood indicated a wide Biden victory. But, as fate would have it, the football was whisked away from Democrats yet again, and Biden lost the state.

Needless to say, Democrats are hungry for a victory in the Tar Heel State. And it’s not just on the presidential level: Democrats have lost the last three Senate elections in North Carolina by razor-thin margins, most painfully in 2022 when former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley — a favorite amongst national Democrats — lost of then-Congressman Ted Budd. In a Senate where control of the chamber increasingly comes down to just a handful of seats, Democrats’ inability to get across the finish line in North Carolina has been increasingly frustrating.

But this year, perhaps masochistically, Democrats are putting their eggs back in the North Carolinian basket. After last week's debate, Harris’ first stop on her victory lap was a pair of packed campaign rallies in the state: one in Charlotte and another in Greensboro. Both events filled those venues to capacity, and the campaign touted a grand total of 25,000 voters coming out to see her over the course of the day.

It marked Harris’ third visit to North Carolina since becoming her party’s nominee, fewer stops than the “core” set of swing states in the upper Midwest but more than the sunbelt states of Nevada or Arizona. But before moving to the top of the ticket, Harris also spent a good deal of time in North Carolina when it was still the Biden-Harris ticket, and some of her final stops as the running mate were in North Carolina’s research triangle. The Biden-Harris campaign saw the vice president as an asset in the state, and that attitude has continued after her ascent to the top spot.

The Harris campaign may not be wrong to think their candidate could have unique strength in North Carolina. Obama’s victory in 2008 was made possible by a groundswell of support and turnout among the state’s large African American population, something both Clinton and Biden could not replicate during their respective races. In another similarity to the Obama campaign, Harris’ operation is investing heavily into its ground game in the state, as detailed in this fantastic New Yorker article this week.

That article also acknowledges that down-ballot races in North Carolina could boost Vice President Harris, particularly after this week's events. While there is not a U.S. Senate seat up for grabs this cycle, the Governor’s Mansion is up for grabs, as the popular incumbent governor, Democrat Roy Cooper, is term-limited. Attorney General Josh Stein is running to replace Cooper, who has a history of eking out statewide wins and won his last election in 2020 by less than 14,000 votes. His run for governor, however, is shaping up to be anything but a nailbiter.

Facing off against Stein is North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, a firebrand, controversial conservative. Robinson has a long history of inflammatory and problematic rhetoric, declaring homosexuality “filth,” calling abortion a “scourge on this nation,” and proudly denying the Holocaust on Facebook. His remarks have garnered him harsh criticism, but it was not enough to stop his bid for governor and the nomination by the North Carolina Republican Party.

The intense scrutiny around Robinson hit a boiling point this week when CNN reported Robinson’s activity on an online pornographic forum where he yet again made a series of disturbing remarks, including declaring himself a “black Nazi.” It was reported that Robinson briefly flirted with withdrawing from the race in the wake of this report, but he has since insisted that he is staying in the race.

Even before Robinson’s porn forum activity was unearthed, polling showed that this race was not particularly close. Stein has consistently led Robinson by double digits, with a recent Morning Consult poll showing Stein leading Robinson by a whopping 13 points, a margin unheard of in modern North Carolina politics. Now, in light of these new Robinson comments, this race may be over.

Political handicappers seem to agree: in the wake of CNN’s reporting, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic,” while Elections Daily moved the race into their “Safe Democratic” column. Polling, spending, and election prognosticators agree: Democrats seem on track to retain the North Carolina governorship, and it probably won’t be very close.

It is rare that “reverse coattails” exist: often, the race at the top of the ballot — this year, it’s the presidential race — impacts down-ballot contests, not the other way around. However, this year, in North Carolina, a disastrous Republican nominee for governor may damage Donald Trump’s chances of carrying the state, and the Harris campaign knows it. This week, they released this ad, airing in the Tar Heel State, tying Donald Trump to Robinson:

Again, it’s a shocking reversal of traditional politicking, where candidates are often tied to their party’s president or presidential nominee, not vice versa. In 2010 and 2014, Democrats were saddled with their association with President Obama, as were Republicans with Trump in 2016 and 2018. However, Robinson is toxic and on track to lose widely, and linking Trump with Robinson may be the best way for the Harris campaign to carry North Carolina and its pivotal sixteen electoral votes.

For his part, Trump has refused to comment on the Robinson allegations, and the Lt. Governor will not attend the Trump event in the Charlotte area today. Additionally, the Trump campaign seems hopeful that the effect of a down-ballot race will be minimal on their presidential contest, particularly as this scandal inevitably fades from the front pages.

But my take is this: North Carolina, a longtime headache for Democrats, has taken center stage in this presidential election. The Harris campaign has good reason to be optimistic: she holds a slim lead in state polling, she has a large operation in the state, and her run for the White House holds shades of Obama’s successful bid in the state from 2008. All of that, coupled with a toxic down-ballot Republican nominee for governor, may be enough to drag Trump down and boost Harris up enough for her to carry the state. At the same time, Democrats should remain cautious: we’ve been here with North Carolina before, and the state may — despite everything — remain stubbornly out of reach. But for now, Harris seems to be in a strong position in the Old North State, and were she to win it, she would essentially lock up this race and be on her way to the White House.