Selzer and What To Watch for Tomorrow Night

A shock Iowa poll, and what warrants attention as polls close tomorrow night

It’s official, folks: tomorrow is election day, marking the end of one of the most topsy-turvy elections in recent memory. When this race began, we were hurtling towards a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. A botched debate, a campaign suspension, two assassination attempts, two conventions, and an entirely new Democratic candidate later, the 2024 presidential campaign is coming to a photo finish.

In this week’s final pre-election Trail Mix, I’ll give a run-down of the shock Iowa poll that came out this weekend and what to watch for early tomorrow night as polls close across the eastern seaboard and results trickle in.

Death, Taxes, and Ann Selzer?

Polling has gotten a pretty bad rep in the last few cycles after big misses in both 2016 and 2020. And for some good reasons, pundits and political junkies believe the polls may be off this cycle as well, with a solid amount of evidence that pollsters may be “herding,” which essentially means pollsters are skewing their results to show as many close races as possible, scared to publish outlier results and run the risk of underestimating Donald Trump for a third cycle in a row. Of course, that’s just one theory, but the odds that this many polls show this tight a race are low: polls should have outliers, or at least should show results not all within one or two points in every swing state.

One pollster who has, if anything, improved her reputation is Iowa’s Ann Selzer, who runs the Des Moines Register poll. Selzer is something of a polling celebrity, nailing election results for decades. Indeed, it was her poll that caught Obama’s surprise win in the Iowa Caucus in 2008, vaulting her to fame as one of the “best pollsters in politics.” And the results speak for themselves:

Final Selzer Iowa Poll (Final Iowa Result):

• 2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)

• 2020 President: Trump +7 (Trump +8)

• 2018 Governor D+2 (R+3)

• 2016 President: Trump +7 (Trump +9)

• 2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)

• 2012 President: Obama +5 (Obama +6)

Needless to say, Selzer is usually right. Her poll — in both 2016 and 2020 — showed Trump leading in the state by more than most, foretelling Trump’s Midwestern overperformance that vaulted him to the White House in 2016 and caused 2020 to be much narrower than expected.

And it is for this reason that the political world was holding its breath for her final Iowa poll that was released on Saturday night. Going into it, many assumed that a Trump lead of anywhere between 5 to 10 points would be relatively good news for Harris, as Iowa has lurched right in recent cycles and is widely not considered a competitive state. Many expected a result that showed Harris matching, or even slightly behind Biden’s performance in the state would bode well for her, while anything less would indicate another Trump overperformance.

Those expectations were blown away on Saturday when Selzer released these results:

It’s a shocking result: neither candidate has paid much attention to Iowa, and it’s a state widely anticipated to be in Trump’s column tomorrow night. The poll shows Harris with massive leads amongst women, seniors, and those with a college degree, putting up impressive numbers with white voters not seen by Democratic candidates in decades. Were Harris to win Iowa by three points — improving upon Biden’s 2020 performance in the state by about 12 points — that would put her on track not only to win the seven core swing states comfortably but perhaps expand her map into Texas, Florida, Ohio, and beyond. It would be, for lack of a better word, a landslide.

Of course, this poll is an outlier. Other polling across the Midwest, even in Iowa itself, does not indicate that Harris is performing this well. And the swings amongst demographic groups in this poll seem too large to be true (including independent women, who back Harris by 28 points in this poll). But, Selzer has released “outliers” before — in 2016 and 2020 —, which were more accurate than almost every other pollster, catching demographic swings and turnout discrepancies that others missed.

And while I would seriously doubt Harris actually wins Iowa, if this poll is at all close to the final result in the Hawkeye State, Harris seems on track to perform well across the Midwest and beyond. Even applying Selzer’s biggest recent miss — five points off in the 2018 gubernatorial race — would mean a tight race in Iowa, indicating comfortable Harris wins in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And those states are the entire ballgame.

Maybe Queen Ann will have her first big miss this cycle. It happens to the best of us! But if history tells us anything, don’t bet against Selzer. This poll could be the canary in the coal mine for a wider Harris victory than many are anticipating.

What to Watch Early On Tomorrow Night

We all remember “election week” back in 2020. In fact, Biden’s win wasn’t even called until the Saturday after the election, as several states remained too close to call and counted too slowly to be able to say with any certainty what would happen. That elongated process was largely the result of COVID protocols, which implemented mail-in and early voting more extensively, something which took states a longer time to process. But, given how close the race might be this year, it could take days for us to have a clear picture of who is really going to come out on top.

Still, there are some early counties and states to watch out for that close early and count quickly tomorrow night. These key areas could indicate what direction this race is heading, and in the event of a significant polling miss and a landslide in either direction, early calls in any of these places would be our first hint.

Indiana and Kentucky are the first two states to close their polls at 6:00 PM EST. These two states are widely expected to be in Trump’s column, but certain counties could provide us with early hints as to which direction this race is heading:

The road to the White House for both Trump and Harris runs through the suburbs, and it’s those areas that we should keep an eye out for tomorrow night—specifically, Hamilton County, Indiana, just outside Indianapolis. It’s a suburban county, the epitome of places where Democrats have made inroads during the Trump era. Indeed, Hamilton County broke 56-36% for Trump in 2016 but swung heavily towards Biden in 2020, with Trump only winning the county 52-45%. If Harris’ gains amongst independents, women, and moderate Republicans are real, this county should narrow yet again. She doesn’t necessarily have to win it, but if she can match Biden’s performance or improve upon it, it would be a good sign of Harris’ strength in the suburbs.

Similarly, take a look at Lake County, home to Gary, Indiana, and a largely working-class, ancestrally Democratic contingent. Biden underperformed Clinton here: Clinton won it by 20 points, while Biden took it by 15. If Trump continues to make gains here, it could spell trouble for Harris, who may struggle to hold onto the kinds of union, white, working-class voters Biden was able to retain just enough of to win the White House.

At 7:00 PM EST, the first big swing state closes: North Carolina, which has a reputation for counting fast, and both campaigns are eyeing. In fact, Trump has barnstormed the state in the campaign's final days, indicating his campaign’s concerns about the Tar Heel State. Watch this state closely! Areas like the Research Triangle around Raleigh and Durham, the Charlotte metro area, and rural, majority-black counties in the eastern part of the state are critical to a Harris victory. If African American turnout is high, and Harris is improving upon Biden’s performance in suburban areas like parts of Mecklenburg County or Carrabus County, then she may be on track to flip the state. And if North Carolina is called for Harris tomorrow night, it’s pretty safe to say she’ll be the next president. If Trump wins it again, he’s threading the needle he needs to win a second term.

My take is this: this race could take a hot second to call, which is okay! And Trump seems posed to declare victory prematurely again, just like he did in 2020. But there are early signs we can look to for key insights into this race. Is Harris improving in suburban areas? Are key swing state cities, like Atlanta or Detroit, turning out? Is Trump continuing to dominate rural areas? Look for early clues, which may lower your anxiety as the night drags on.

I’m wary of making a prediction. This race is close, and a standard polling error in either direction could mean a relatively comfortable win for either candidate. But if I had to pick a winner, I’d say Harris. She has run an impressive race after being dealt a tough hand: her campaign has the superior operation, the polling gives her a slight edge, and she has the momentum heading down the home stretch. Plus, her campaign sounds cautiously (nauseously?) optimistic, while the Trump operation is already pointing fingers.

State-by-state predictions are even riskier, but I’d guess Harris threads the needle: winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and then one of the remaining swing states (the most likely seems Nevada, and then North Carolina, and then Georgia, and then biiiiig gap, Arizona). This would get her just over the 270 electoral votes she needs, making it the closest presidential contest since 2004, but a solid win nonetheless.

I could be wrong, but I’m laying down the gauntlet there. Thanks for following along on this wild ride. It’s been fun (as fun as this can be, I guess). I’ll be back later this week with a postmortem. Good luck tomorrow! I’ll be seated in front of CNN, Indian food in my lap, stiff drink in my hand, Twitter open on my phone, and massive amounts of anxiety in my heart.

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What are the polls saying?

FiveThirtyEight National Average: Harris +1.1%

RealClearPolitics National Average: Trump +0.1%

See you on the flip side.