The Veep Looks for Her Veep

Harris' veepstakes take on special importance as she introduces herself to the American public

It has been an incredible week in Democratic politics as Vice President Harris takes the helm of the party’s 2024 ticket. After a month of beleaguered headlines for President Biden, Harris’ candidacy has been considered a breath of fresh air for once-demoralized Democrats. In the first week of her fledgling campaign, Harris raised over 200 million dollars, 66% of which came from first-time donors, a record-breaking haul. The campaign claims they have signed up 170,000 new volunteers across the country, and Harris continues to climb in both national and swing state polling.

The polling numbers for her candidacy are a significant swing from Biden’s, where polling had begun to show Biden not only trailing in key battleground states, but states Democrats have won for decades, including New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. Reportedly, it was internal polling that broke the Biden campaign’s back, compelling the president to drop his bid for reelection.

Now, Harris seems to be improving upon Biden’s standing across the board, erasing Trump’s lead in surveys and, in some cases, pulling ahead. For example, in the NYT/Siena polling, Biden trailed Trump by six points nationally in early July. In the days after Harris rose to the top of the ticket, Trump’s lead shrank to a single point. In the Morning Consult weekly poll, Harris has maintained a slight, one-point lead over Trump for two weeks, whereas Biden trailed in that same poll by two points. And in a Susquehanna poll out of the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump in that all-important swing state by four points.

Fueling Harris’ rise in polling is a sharp increase in her favorability, as she becomes one of the first presidential candidates with a positive favorability rating in almost fifteen years. An ABC/Ipsos poll shows her popularity surging, with 43% of Americans holding a favorable opinion of her versus 42% with an unfavorable opinion. That’s still quite close, but in the same poll, 52% had an unfavorable view of Trump versus only 36% with a favorable opinion.

Many are calling this Harris’ “honeymoon phase:” her favorability numbers may be artificially high because Republicans have yet to land a serious punch against her, and she has been thrust into the national spotlight under very favorable conditions. Indeed, the Trump campaign is responding to her rising popularity, attempting to define Harris before she can define herself, running ads describing her as “dangerously liberal” and “weak:”

Countering this, the Harris campaign released their first ad of the general election, a bio-oriented spot characterizing her as “fearless.:

As Harris seeks to define herself nationally, her decision on a running-mate has come under increased speculation. Whomever she picks will give us keen insight into how her campaign sees her standing in this race and what strategy they will employ over the next 90-something days until election day. In this week’s Trail Mix, I’ll break down the leading contenders for Vice President and their respective pros/cons for the Harris candidacy.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

The governor of this election's most important swing state seems to be the frontrunner for the veep spot. He brings with him both soaring popularity in Pennsylvania and soaring rhetoric on the campaign trail, which has earned him praise and comparisons to Obama.

Josh Shapiro was elected to the governor’s mansion less than two years ago, easily dispatching a weak Republican opponent and cruising to victory by fifteen points. That’s an impressive margin, one which most Democrats could only dream of in a state as narrowly divided as Pennsylvania, and Shapiro’s popularity has stayed sky-high since he was sworn in. Shapiro’s approval rating in the state consistently hovers around 60%, making him the most popular governor the Keystone State has seen in decades.

Thus, putting Shapiro on the ticket has a singular geographic advantage: his popularity in Pennsylvania could singlehandedly deliver his state and its crucial 19 electoral votes to Kamala Harris. That’s an appealing deal, especially for a campaign hyper-focused on expanding their paths to 270 electoral votes through both the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt.

In addition to his home state credentials, Shapiro has earned praise for his performances on the campaign trail. His speech alongside Presidents Obama and Biden in October 2022 received much attention online and served as the basis for the Harris campaign's new message around “freedom.”

However, despite the obvious electoral benefits of a Shapiro vice presidency, his stock has taken a hit in recent days, as past statements voicing support for Israel have concerned some Democratic activists, and concerns about his handling of sexual harassment allegations within his staff have come into focus.

As such, picking Shapiro could come down to a simple equation: are you willing to alienate parts of your coalition in order to win a crucial swing state? And if the Harris campaign does pick Shapiro and the risks associated with him, it would indicate a genuine unease about their standing in Pennsylvania.

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly

Another potential pick from a competitive swing state is Arizona’s Mark Kelly, a first-term senator who has won a pair of competitive elections in the Copper State. Kelly was first elected in a special election in 2020, filling the late John McCain’s seat, and then won a full term in 2022. In the mold of Shapiro, Kelly’s swing state credentials make him an appealing candidate, though it is more Kelly’s personal story that holds the appeal.

Kelly is a former astronaut, a title that has been a long-time political asset. John Glenn, for example, became a senator from Ohio after his famed mission into space. Florida’s Bill Nelson—who served three terms in the U.S. Senate from the one-time swingiest of swing states, Florida—was also an astronaut named NASA Administrator by President Biden. The point is: everyone loves an astronaut, and adding Kelly to the ticket could allow Harris to level their sky-high (pun intended!) appeal.

Additionally, Kelly is married to former Congresswoman Gaby Giffords, a one-time rising star in the Democratic Party who miraculously survived an assassination attempt in 2011 and has fiercely advocated for gun safety ever since.

(Seriously, if you don’t know the Gabby Giffords story, look her up. It’s incredible.)

Thus, Kelly’s personal story, coupled with swing state appeal and his tough, motorcycle-driving, leather jacket-wearing demeanor, makes him an attractive vice presidential pick. However, his candidacy has also hit a few roadblocks recently, as unions lodge complaints about his refusal to endorse the PRO Act and the Harris campaign signals they are looking for a governor on the ticket. As such, his stock in the veepstakes has fallen, but he remains in the mix.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear

(Are we sensing a theme here?)

The third (but not final) straight white man on this list is Governor Andy Beshear, who is currently in his second term as the Democratic executive of a ruby-red state. First elected in 2019, Beshear narrowly defeated the unpopular Republican incumbent, riding a wave of support from teacher’s unions after Andy Bevin — the Republican incumbent — cut teacher’s pensions. Four years later, Beshear was reelected, even expanding his margin of victory, this time against Mitch McConnell’s hand-picked candidate, who many saw as a rising star in the GOP.

Needless to say, Beshear is popular in Kentucky, partly due to his last name: his father, Steve Beshear, was governor before him. But he has also earned praise for his handling of the severe flooding that occurred in Eastern Kentucky in 2022 and has been a fierce advocate for Democratic policies in the state, including transgender rights.

Beshear's drawback is that he is relatively unknown and untested nationally. His recent appearances on CNN and MSNBC, as he pretty overtly campaigns for the VP slot, have been solid but sometimes a little stilted. To pick Beshear would be to take a chance on a dark horse VP pick, something which has, in the past, backfired on both parties. Look no further than Sarah Palin or the week J.D. Vance is having!

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz

Tim Walz is having a moment. In the last week, my Twitter feed has been filled with clips of the Minnesota governor’s midwestern, folksy charm as he berates Republicans for being “weird.” Indeed, Walz’s branding has caught on: Democrats across the country have begun calling Trump and Vance “weird,” a bizarrely effective strategy that is a far cry from Biden’s high-minded defenses of democracy.

In essence, Walz is an attack dog and a surprisingly effective messenger, something that many Democrats are just now catching on to. But beyond that, Walz carries a history of electoral success in deeply conservative parts of the country. Walz represented a red, rural district in southern Minnesota for 12 years in Congress before flipping the Governor’s Mansion in 2018. He’s a decorated veteran, a former high school teacher and football coach, and reportedly has the backing of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

As governor, Walz has worked with the slimmest of margins in the Minnesota legislature — a one-seat majority — to enact major progressive priorities, including providing universal free lunches in public schools, protecting abortion rights, and expanding parental leave.

Like Beshear, Walz is a relative unknown on the national scene, who has only recently burst into the zeitgeist with his whole “Republicans are weird” schtick. And, though he is from the Midwest, Shapiro, Kelly, and Beshear have more direct geographic appeal than Walz, whose home state most assume Harris will carry in November.

My take is this: if I had to guess, I would say Shapiro is still the favorite for the VP nod despite his challenges. His appeal in the must-win state of Pennsylvania makes him hard to pass over as Harris looks to crawl back from Biden’s polling deficit in the state. However, my personal affections lie with Beshear and Walz, two effective governors who have track records of winning Independents and Republicans and would bring their respective southern/midwestern charm to the ticket. For a candidate who can come across as polished as Harris does, she may benefit from tapping a more rough-around-the-edges VP pick, someone who can tear into Trump/Vance while not coming across as scripted.

Regardless, we will have an answer soon, as Harris is set to appear with her pick at a rally in Pennsylvania next Tuesday and then embark on a battleground blitz with her running mate, hitting seven swing states in just four days. That aggressive schedule is a part of the Harris campaign’s continued efforts to introduce her to the American public. It is a show of stamina and energy missing in the previous Biden campaign. As Harris moves on from a ticket where she was once the running mate, her search for her own has undoubtedly taken on increased importance.